Jonathan vs Buhari: How they stand in 36 States, FCT
With the presidential election just
around the corner, our correspondents write that the battle, which is a
straight one between President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu
Buhari, may spring some surprises
As Nigerians, nay the world, wait for
the March 28 presidential election and the 10 competing political
parties putting finishing touches to their strategies, the actual
contest, political watchers have submitted, is between the incumbent
President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party and Maj.
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) of the All Progressives Congress.
How would the scenario look like in the
country’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, when the battle
is fought, won and lost?
Abia
President Jonathan of the PDP is
expected to win the presidential poll in Abia State as his party remains
the dominant one there. The PDP’s strong base in the state coupled with
the position of Governor Theodore Orji as the Coordinator of Jonathan’s
Campaign Organisation in the South-East zone has further boosted
Jonathan’s chances at the poll. Abia parades an army of people and
accomplished Nigerians who are of the PDP family and they have been
working assiduously to deliver their various localities to the
President. Some of them include: Nigeria’s High Commissioner to Canada,
Chief Ojo Maduekwe; former PDP National Chairman, Vincent Ogbulafor;
former Senate President Adulphus Wabara; Minister of Finance, Ngozi
Okonjo-Iweala; Gen. Ike Nwachukwu ( retd); among a host of others.
Jonathan’s marital tie with Abia State
is also expected to boost his chances. The mother of the First Lady,
Patience Jonathan, hailed from Abia and the state enjoys a very warm
relationship with the First Family.
Abuja
Abuja, the seat of power, should
ordinarily be the star on the crown of the eventual winner of the
Presidential elections. However, the territory which some refer to as a
city of civil servants is likely to be almost evenly split between
Jonathan and Buhari.
Senator Philip Aduda (PDP) is expected
to lead other public and political office holders to mobilise votes for
the President because the FCT Minister, Senator Bala Mohammed; would be
required to go back to Bauchi where he hails from to join the governor
and the party’s national chairman, Adamu Mua’azu to campaign for the
President. Aduda, however, has to contend with a former political
opponent, Adamu Sidi-Ali, who apart from contesting for a Senate seat is
also mobilising support for Buhari and the APC. That Abuja is where the
President has lived for six years counts for a lot but the large number
of northerners in the city is also a plus for Buhari. Verdict: It’s too
close to call.
Adamawa
It is a state of political gladiators
and all of them will want to make a point. The state boasts of ex-Vice
President Atiku Abubakar of the APC; Buhari’s wife; former Chairman of
the PDP, Bamanga Tukur; ex-EFCC Chairman, Nuhu Ribadu, among others.
It would have been an easy ride for the PDP, but for the Boko Haram menace that has claimed many lives.
The opinion of political analysts in the
state is that despite the successes recorded in Mubi and many other
towns, many indigenes are not impressed because they believe that the
President launched the late war on the insurgents to score a political
point.
Hence, it looks like a tight race between Buhari and Jonathan despite the fact that PDP won the state in 2011.
Akwa Ibom
Both the PDP and the APC are popular in
Akwa Ibom State. Each of these two political parties exercises dominance
in some sections of the state.
The people of Oro ethnic nationality
(the largest ethnic group in Akwa Ibom South Senatorial District with
five local government areas) are mainly against the PDP.
The people, who embrace APC hold that if
Oro continues to remain in the PDP, the probability for them to produce
a governor in the next 40 years will be slim.
Other areas with strong support APC base
are Uruan; Ibeno; Ikot Abasi; Esit Eket; Abak Federal Constituency
otherwise known as Abak Five; Itu; Ini; Ikono. The party has also
encroached into areas like Ikot Ekpene; Essien Udim, where the PDP has
strongholds.
However, Governor Godswill Akpabio who
is an ardent loyalist of Jonathan is expected to deliver the state to
PDP coupled with the South-East support for Jonathan.
Anambra
In 2011, President Jonathan of the PDP polled 1,145,169 million votes or 98.8 per cent of the total votes cast in Anambra State.
From the statistics, Anambra gave
Jonathan the highest proportion of votes in the country. His closest
rival was the Congress Progressives Congress candidate, Gen. Muhammadu
Buhari, who polled 4,223 votes.
The situation on the ground shows that
Jonathan still has an edge over Buhari and will very likely win the
presidential election in the state.
The sentiments that worked well for
Jonathan in 2011 are still very much around. But the party has lost a
lot of followers, who though may not move over to vote Buhari, may
remain indifferent.
The factors playing in favour of
Jonathan include the incumbency factor. The party in power in the state,
the All Progressives Grand Alliance, has also adopted Jonathan as its
presidential candidate.
This adds to the advantage of Jonathan being the official candidate of the biggest opposition party in the state.
Jonathan is likely to win but with a diminished margin as against the result in 2011 when he scored 98 per cent of the votes.
Bauchi
With the National Chairman of the PDP,
Adamu Mu’azu, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator
Bala Mohammed and Governor Isa Yuguda, President Jonathan should expect
to garner a substantial number of votes or at least 25 per cent of the
votes. However, this can only happen if the three resolve their
differences and decide to work together. Buhari’s popularity among the
ordinary folk in the state is unlikely to wane before the March 28
election. Buhari is most likely to carry the day.
Bayelsa
In Bayelsa, the home state of President Jonathan, it is almost a taboo to mention any other political party except the PDP.
The emergence of the rival opposition
political party, the APC, has yet to change the people’s perception
about the PDP. Also, the APC has yet to entrench itself as a formidable
party in the state. Observers believe that in Bayelsa, the general
election is fait accompli for the PDP as the party has formidable structures in the state compared to the APC and other political parties.
Benue
Here the two candidates’ chances stand
at 55 per cent for Jonathan and 45 for Buhari. Though a PDP controlled
state, the people of the state complain endlessly of non-payment of
salaries which they say has been the bane of the government. The state
is agrarian with a high dominance of civil servants in the elite class.
Having the civil servants objecting to
any government spells near defeat for such administration. This is what
has put the PDP on the path of declined popularity. However, Jonathan
still stands slightly higher than Buhari in the reckoning of the people.
Also, Senate President David Mark will want to make a good showing in
his state.
Borno
In Borno, Buhari has been a political
factor since the first day he declared his ambition to contest the
presidency of Nigeria in 2007. He has always come first while his
opponents, Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar’Adua and the current one,
Jonathan, came a far second. He is idolised by the people of the state,
it can even been said that he is more loved in the state than in his
home state of Katsina because he lost there to Umaru Yar’Adua in 2007.
He has never lost any election in Borno where he is seen as a role model
and anyone that seeks political office has to come via him.
The love for Buhari was said to have
started when he was the military governor in Maiduguri, which was the
then capital of the North-East state and till date, he is still loved as
if those days were moments away.
As it stands today, Buhari will get a landslide victory over Jonathan in Borno.
Cross River
In Cross River State, it is obvious
where the pendulum will swing in the March 28 presidential election.
This is so because it is one of the few states in the South-South region
that is completely controlled by the PDP.
Candidates of the ruling party won the
entire senatorial and House of Representatives seats in the 2011
election. The party also produced the governor and 24 out of 25 members
of the state House of Assembly. It also has in its kitty, all the 18
Local Government Area chairmen and 196 councillors.
Apart from an almost overwhelming
victory for the PDP presidential candidate, votes based on ethnic
sentiment might also go in favour of President Jonathan because the
electorate thinks that the two-term tenure of a candidate from the
region must be upheld.
Delta
In Delta, President Jonathan stands head and shoulders above his closest rival, Buhari.
A number of factors are playing in
favour of the President in the state and one of them is the fact that he
is from the South-South geopolitical zone. The people of Delta, would
rather vote their own than support someone else from another
geopolitical zone.
According to Bunor Agbomedarho, a former
banker and House of Assembly aspirant, the people of Delta State will
not throw away their son for whatever reason. “He is from here and we
will give it to him naturally,” he said.
In addition to that, the coastal areas
of the state, where block votes usually emerge from to determine
eventual winners of most of the presidential and governorship elections
are peopled by Jonathan’s Ijaw ethnic group.
Apart from the ethnic factor, those who
now control affairs in the coastal areas, fall among the ex-Niger Delta
militants that have benefitted heavily from the Federal Government under
Jonathan.
Another factor that plays in favour of Jonathan is the incumbent factor in Delta where his party, the PDP, is ruling.
Ebonyi
This is another South-East state where the PDP and its presidential candidate, Jonathan, have an edge over the opposition.
The attempt to impeach Governor Martins
Elechi, who has a strong support at the grassroots, at some point
threatened to undermine Jonathan’s re-election campaign in the state.
There were indications that most of the governor’s supporters would have
voted against the President in protest, had Elechi been impeached
before the elections.
The dark cloud has, however, cleared after the Ebonyi State House of Assembly reportedly suspended the impeachment process.
Edo
Edo has a total of 1,779,738 registered
voters. But the APC currently holds sway as the ruling party in Edo
State, having defeated the PDP in the 2007 and 2012 governorship
elections.
Like in other states in the South-South,
ethnicity is considered a major factor, which would attract support for
the PDP and Jonathan in the March 28 poll, as it did in 2011, when it
secured the majority votes in the state, irrespective of the political
parties.
Since the inception of the opposition
party, Buhari has become seemingly popular across the state, compared to
2003, 2007 and 2011 presidential elections, where his campaigns were
more pronounced in Auchi, an area largely dominated by Muslims. Also,
Governor Adams Oshiomhole has a large following and can swing votes
Buhari’s way. The Chairman of the APC, John Odigie-Oyegun, who is from
the state will want to prove that he is a chairman indeed despite the
political sagacity of Chief Tony Anenih who is a force to reckon with.
Ekiti
Events in Ekiti recently suggest a tilt
in the balance between the popularity of the ruling PDP and the
opposition APC. Although Governor Ayodele Fayose has continued to enjoy
the support of the grassroots, it is observed these days that his large
following in the state is fast depleting in ranks. This may not be
unconnected with the squabbles over the primaries of the party conducted
in December last year. The division in the State House of Assembly is
also a minus for the PDP as the legislators who are anti-Fayose are not
keen on getting their supporters to vote for Jonathan.
The opposition seems to be gathering
momentum especially with the return of the governorship candidate of the
Labour Party, Opeyemi Bamidele, to the APC.
Bamidele who declared support for Buhari has deployed his political platform, the Ekiti Bibire Coalition, for the mission.
The talk in town is that this general
election is different from the governorship election when people
mobilised and voted Fayose. It is a common trend to see people shouting
‘sai Buhari’ on the streets of Ado Ekiti.
Enugu
In Enugu, President Jonathan is expected to get more votes than Buhari and other presidential candidates.
This expectation is based on the fact
that, among the 36 states in the country, Enugu is arguably one of the
states where the PDP has the strongest followership.
There is hardly any prominent politician
that is campaigning against Jonathan in Enugu at the moment — even some
‘aggrieved’ former PDP members who joined other political parties in
order to realise their political ambitions in the 2015 polls are
including the President’s pictures in their campaign posters.
The politicians with the largest support
bases in the state are all campaigning for Jonathan — these include
Governor Sullivan Chime, Deputy Senate President Ike Ekweremadu, former
Senate President Ken Nnamani, and a former governor of old Anambra
State, Chief Jim Nwobodo, among several others.
Gombe
This is likely to be one of the most
keenly contested states in the North because just as General Buhari,
enjoys a large following, the state Governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo, the
Minister of Transportation, Senator Idris Umar and the Deputy National
Publicity Secretary of the ruling PDP, Abdullahi Jalo, who are ardent
supporters of President Jonathan, have a point to prove. They will be up
against a former governor of the state, Senator Danjuma Goje who is a
stalwart of the APC.
Imo
Like other South-East states, President
Jonathan waxes strong in Imo. The fact that he has been adopted by main
Igbo socio-cultural groups has made him stronger in this state. In Imo,
it is Jonathan, even though Gov. Rochas Okorocha of the APC, who is the
only South-East governor in the party, will want to show his might and
popularity.
Jigawa
Here, there is an impressive
followership for Buhari. Many political analysts have submitted that it
would not be difficult for Buhari to coast home with victory in the
state. However, Gov. Sule Lamido of the PDP will not allow himself to be
put to shame.
President Jonathan is looking up to him
to deliver the state and he will do everything not to disappoint the
President. As a founding member of the PDP, he has a point to prove.
Whether he can convince the northern electorate to vote for Jonathan
remains to be seen.
Kaduna
This is the state of Vice-President
Namadi Sambo, who the President expects to deliver the state. The
Secretary of the PDP Board of Trustees, Senator Walid Jibrin, said, “It
is the quality of crowd that matters in a rally.”
It was a veiled reference to the scanty
crowd of supporters that greeted the PDP Presidential Campaign Train to
Kaduna State on January 31,2015.
In that rally, the main bowl of the
Ahmadu Bello Stadium, was half-filled, thereby sending signals that
President Jonathan may find winning the 2015 presidential race, in the
state difficult.
But Jibrin allayed the fears as
according to him, the PDP as a party believed in a ‘quality crowd’ and
not ‘quantity’ which, he argued, characterised the opposition APC
presidential campaign.
However, the antagonistic disposition of
the people of Northern Kaduna zone, who are pre-dominantly Muslims,
will certainly work against the President and be an advantage to the APC
candidate. But, Jonathan may get votes from the southern part of the
state, a predominantly Christian dominated area. This area has
consistently voted en bloc for the PDP since 1999. Buhari won the state
with 1.3 million votes in 2011.
Kano
It is an open secret that the presidential candidate of the APC has his strongest support base in the North.
Even before the defection of Kano State
governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, from the PDP to the APC, most of the eligible
voters in Kano were ardent Buhari loyalists.
A lot of factors appear to be working in
Buhari’s favour in the state. The PDP is yet to deal with its internal
conflicts while the state governor, and a majority of members of the
National Assembly members are members of the APC. The emergence of
Lamido Sanusi Lamido as the Emir of Kano seemed to have sealed
Jonathan’s fate. The Emir is not a fan of Jonathan and he doesn’t hide
it.
It will be safe to say, Buhari will beat Goodluck Jonathan.
Katsina
There is no lenghty expalanation for
this. Charity, they say, begins at home. The home state of Buhari is
overwhelmingly for him. Though the state is ruled by the PDP, the
residents are not leaving their own unsupported.
Kebbi
Carved out from the old Sokoto State,
this state has produced governors and members of the National Assembly
from both the ruling party and the opposition. It started off as an ANPP
state in 1999 but has been under the control of the PDP since 2007. The
turmoil within the state chapter of the PDP is likely to cost the party
and its candidates dearly. Even without such a conflict, the Buhari
phenomenon which has swept most parts of the North is unlikely to change
there.
Kogi
In Kogi, the contest according to
political observers will be a keen one.The state has been ruled by the
PDP for the 16 years of the current democratic dispensation. Though
there had been attempts to wrest power from the PDP in the state, such
had so far proved futile making the party to record either substantial
or landslide victories during elections.
But the scenario appears to be changing
with the reported defection of some political juggernauts from the
ruling PDP to the APC.
Also with the reported inroad of Buhari
into the minds of many people in the northern states, and Kogi being a
state near Abuja appears to be catching the bug.
It may not be quite easy for one to
accurately predict whether Jonathan or Buhari will convincingly win in
Kogi in the March 28 presidential election given the political dynamism
of voting, but that Jonathan won there in 2011 is a plus.
Kwara
The PDP had lost the Kwara State to the
APC following the defection of former Governor Bukola Saraki and his
followers. Those who defected with him to the APC included another
former governor and who is also now a senator, Mr. Shaaba Lafiagi; all
the members of the House of Representatives, the current state governor,
Mr. Abdulfatah Ahmed and his political appointees; the Speaker, Kwara
State House of Assembly and 19 other legislators.
While Saraki and his followers give the
impression that the APC will trounce the PDP, it may not be that easy
because of alleged federal might and the perception that Kwara residents
are yearning for a change from an alleged Saraki oligarchy.
Buhari is, however, expected to coast home with about 70 per cent of the total votes cast.
Lagos
The APC candidate is tipped to win the
election in the state based on the fact that it is the stronghold of the
major opposition party since 1999. According to political watchers,
even though the ruling party, the PDP, won the presidential poll in the
state in 2003 (the main opposition party did not field any presidential
candidate that year), 2007 and 2011, the political dynamics had since
changed.
Although Buhari is from the North, he is
expected to win the state under the platform of APC also because his
deputy, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo is Yoruba. The choice of Osinbajo has been a
hit in the South-West states. Lagos is also home to Senator Bola
Tinubu, the national leader of the APC and of course Governor Babatunde
Fashola one of the highest rated governors in the country.
Recently, the PDP Governors Forum at its
meeting in Lagos said the party would win elections in all the states
in the South including Lagos.
Overall, Buhari is expected to win Lagos on Saturday.
Nasarawa
While many may have concluded that Nasarawa State is for Buhari, a political analyst who pleaded anonymity in an interview with SUNDAY PUNCH
in Lafia, said: “The only thing that might affect the chances of the
presidential candidate of Buhari, in the state is the inability of his
party to handle the recent crisis that engulfed it in some part of the
state in recent times.”
Though controlled by the APC, Jonathan
won by 408,997 votes in 2011. The PDP has also suffered major cracks in
the state that might affect its chances on March 28.
Niger
The presence of two former Heads of
State, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida and Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar who are
reportedly opposed to a Buhari government will make the state a tough
one for APC to conquer. It is controlled by the PDP even though it is on
record that President Jonathan has never won outrightly there. Also,
Governor Babangida Aliyu who wants to run for President in 2019 sees
this election as a litmus test. However, Buhari won Niger in 2011 and
this is significant.
Ogun
In Ogun, the ruling APC has engaged in
robust campaigns across the 20 local government areas and the 236 wards.
And the campaign has always been led by the state governor, Senator
Ibikunle Amosun.
The APC presidential candidate, Buhari,
has more following than the governor, though. The emergence of Prof.
Yemi Osinbajo as APC vice-presidential candidate, who is from the state
has been termed a ‘technical knockout.’
The three-day warning strike by the
civil servants under the Joint National Negotiating Council, has
affected the rating of the governor.
However, Buhari’s touted aura, integrity
and upright lifestyle are working for him in the state. The artisans,
taxi drivers, and many market women are rooting for him.
With this going on, the PDP is
struggling to patch up the cleavages created by the power blocs in the
party. There is the Buruji Kashamu camp working in tandem with the
Adebayo Dayo-led state executive of the PDP; the former Speaker Dimeji
Bankole’s camp and another power bloc, Jubri Martins-Kuye.
These political cleavages had really polarised the party, and slowed down its wheel of progress.
Ondo
Before the rescheduling of the election, there were obvious signs that Jonathan might lose the polls.
Jonathan, at his campaign rally, faced
with the obvious facts of PDP’s house in disarray, raised the alarm,
warning that the raging conflict could cost the party the much needed
victory at the polls.
When he visited the state, Buhari’s
change message was brief to Ondo citizens who thronged the Democracy
Park and waited patiently for his arrival. Buhari’s following remains
unprecedented in the history of the state since he started his quest for
Aso Rock in 2003. The whirl of supporters sent jitters down the spine
of the PDP, an ally of the Labour Party. But, time, seems to be turning
things around for the PDP, with an additional six weeks, the party has
taken the campaign to a new level, going great lengths to weigh down the
opposition. Hence, Buhari and Jonathan may be in a neck-and-neck race.
Osun
The presidential election in Osun State
is a straight fight between President Jonathan and Buhari but Governor
Rauf Aregbesola’s stake in the poll is probably higher than that of
other state governors especially in the South-West.
However, the PDP is coming up stronger
with the earlier postponement of the polls and declining popularity of
the APC among the civil servants and lecturers of the state due to the
non-payment of their five months salaries and issues with non-remittance
of their pension deductions.
The visit of Jonathan to some monarchs
in the state has been described as a good strategy to sway more people’s
support to his side during the presidential poll.
But, most of the notable politicians in the state are in the APC and this makes Buhari’s job very easy among voters.
Oyo
With two weeks to the former date of the
presidential election, the Buhari presidential campaign train hit
Ibadan on January 29 with unarguably more than a million people trooping
to the venue of the campaign on Mapo Hill.
But with the six weeks extension,
Jonathan has succeeded in bringing all the former PDP politicians
together under his fold with the help of Governor Olusegun Mimiko. The
list includes another former governor in the state, Rashidi Ladoja of
the Accord Party, Adebayo Alao-Akala of the labour Party and Seyi
Makinde of the Social Democratic Party. They do not have to leave their
new parties; all they were asked to do is to support the presidential
ambition of President Jonathan while they can afterwards pursue their
individual political ambitions.
It is important to note that Buhari may
not poll the huge votes that he would have recorded if the election had
been held on February 14, 2015.
Plateau
In Plateau, though the majority of the
people may want to loathe the PDP candidate, President Jonathan, they
are not for his APC counterpart, Buhari, either.
The reasons may not be farfetched.
Plateau has been a traditional PDP state and the people have voted
overwhelmingly for the party in the 2011 presidential elections. Indeed,
the PDP garnered over one million votes from Plateau then. But the
reality is not so today as the party could well be struggling to get the
required 25 per cent. Governor Jonah Jang, who is the leader of a
faction of the PDP Govenors’ Forum, has the task of delivering the state
to Jonathan. Hence, it is not clear if Buhari can pull off any magic.
Rivers
It is a tough call between Jonathan and
Buhari in Rivers State as both are popular and they will likely share
the votes. Any of them who wins in the state will not do so with a wide
margin. Analysts have, however, given it to President Jonathan though it
will not be in a landslide like in 2011 when he got about two million
votes. This is because the APC has gained a lot of ground in the state.
President Jonathan may win in Rivers as a
result of the sentiment that the PDP presidential candidate is from the
Niger Delta. Voting along ethnic and religious lines will be pronounced
in the state during the presidential poll. The Patience Jonathan factor
cannot be ignored. She and Governor Amaechi, who also has a large
following, have drawn the battle line and many cannot wait to see the
result. The popularity of the PDP governorship candidate, Nyesom Wike,
will also be tested.
Sokoto
The seat of the caliphate as it chooses
to be called is unmistakably one of the strongholds of the APC in the
forthcoming presidential elections. The state started off under the
control of the now defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party. So strong was its
influence that the PDP had to ask its then flag bearer, Murktari
Shagari, to hand his ticket over to Aliyu Wammako who was then candidate
of the ANPP to stand for the 2007 elections.
During the PDP primaries of 2011, party
delegates from the state voted massively for Atiku Abubakar, when he
failed to get the ticket, they cast their votes for Buhari who stood on
the platform of little known Congress for Progressives Change. The fact
that the National Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki (retd) hails from
the state is unlikely to change anything.
The APC governorship candidate, Aminu
Tambuwal, who is also the Speaker of the House of Representatives has a
huge following in the state.
It’s Buhari.
Taraba
Predominantly Christian, this is another
state where it’s tough to predict who will win. The christian factor
will be working for Jonathan. However, the northern factor is working
for Buhari as northerners feel that they must not fail to seize this
opportunity to elect their own. Jonathan won here in 2011. However, PDP
is not as strong as it used to be in the state.
Yobe
This is one of the few states that have
never fallen into the hands of the ruling party at the centre since
1999. Just like Borno, Yobe has remained the stronghold of opposition
politics at all levels.
During his tenure as the military
governor of the state state before he was moved to the Ministry of
Petroleum in 1976, Buhari built bridges beyond his native Katsina State
and perhaps that is his greatest strength today. The people of Yobe
State have continuously queued behind him and no matter the strength of
his opponent, they have never shifted ground. Even when the governor of
the state then, Bukar Abba Ibrahim, tagged Buhari a political liability
without shelf value, the people of Yobe were proud to be associated with
him.
Hence, in Yobe, it is Buhari.
Zamfara
Zamfara, like Yobe and Borno states, has
remained one of the few states in northern Nigeria which is the
traditional playground of the opposition. This has remained so even when
a one-time governor of the state, Mamuda Shinkafi defected from the
then ANPP to join the PDP. His decision to dump the ANPP to join the PDP
at the centre did not save him from electoral defeat. When it comes to
the question of the presidential election, irrespective of party
affiliation, the people appear united in their support for Buhari.
Report from The Punch
