Governorship Polls : How states will vote

Governorship Polls : How states will vote

Come Saturday, the curtain will be drawn on the 2015 polls with the conduct of
governorship and State House of Assembly elections across most states of the
federation . The outcome of the March 28 presidential contest is expected to
have an effect and alter projections in the gubernatorial race in many states . In
others , with the contest between President Goodluck Jonathan and General
Muhammadu Buhari resolved, local issues would determine the outcome this
weekend . Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation , Sam Egburonu,
Associate Editor, Dare Odufowokan , Assistant Editor, Remi Adelowo , Assistant
Editor and Sunday Oguntola review the outlook in the gubernatorial and
assembly polls and project likely outcomes .
One week is a long time in politics . Seven days ago General Muhammadu
Buhari was just the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress
( APC ) . Today , he’ s Nigeria’s President- Elect. Although he ’ s not on the ballot
in the gubernatorial contests that would play out across the country this
weekend, his influence looms large over the whole affair.
Expectedly, APC and its candidates would benefit from association with his
name in the North West , North East and North Central . In the South West
and South South , many are increasingly consideration whether they want to
belong to the opposition in the new dispensation .
It is going to be battle royale in the 19 Northern states where the
APC will slug it out with a depressed Peoples’ Democratic
Party ( PDP ) . Other parties in contention in some states are the Social
Democratic Party ( SDP) and the Peoples Democratic Movement ( PDM ) .
The battle in the North is unique because of the following factors: strong
party affiliation ; gale of defections ; the likely bandwagon effect of the
victory of Buhari ; ethno- religious configuration ; the personality of the
candidates; zoning / power shift syndrome and probable voters’ apathy .
NORTH WEST
The PDP controls the state governments in Kebbi, Jigawa , Katsina and Kaduna.
This notwithstanding, the sentiments across the zone is largely pro - Buhari.
Many candidates are expected to ride to victory on the president - elect ’ s
coattails.
KEBBI
Seventeen candidates want to be governor in Kebbi State but the odds
favour the APC ’s Sen . Atiku Bagudu . His closest rival is Gen . Sarkin Yaki
Bello of the PDP . Although APC earned 567 , 883 votes to PDP ’ s 100, 972 at
the presidential poll, its leaders are working round the clock to seal victory
on April 11. One of the party ’ s leaders said : “ We are not taking things for
granted at all ; we want to make it a finished business . ”
The imposition of the PDP candidate by outgoing Governor Saidu
Dakingari triggered the defection of many party stalwarts to APC . They
include ex - FCT Minister , Adamu Aliero, Sen . Muhammadu
Magoro , Bala Na ’ Allah , Suleiman Mohammed Argungu and the APC
governorship candidate .
It was not surprising that APC had a clean sweep last Saturday. Barring last
minute game -changer , the internal wrangling in PDP has laid the foundation
for APC ’ s victory .
Verdict: APC to win
KATSINA
This is the home state of Buhari . His image looms large over it and the
bandwagon might dictate the outcome of the governorship election. The
gubernatorial candidate of PDP , Musa Nashuni needs to do something
extraordinary to match the hurricane support of the APC candidate, ex -
Speaker Aminu Masari .
Verdict: APC to win comfortably.
KANO
This is safe political terrain for APC where it polled a massive 1 ,
903, 999 votes against PDP ’ s 215 , 779 last Saturday. The landslide victory of
has sent jitters down the spine of PDP members who appear resigned to
fate . The contest would be mainly between APC ’ s Dr. Abdullahi Umar
Ganduje and Salihu Muhammad Sagir of the PDP .
Verdict: APC to win comfortably
KADUNA
Having lost the presidency last Saturday, the only hope left for Vice
President Namadi Sambo is to win the governorship slot for PDP in Kaduna
State. His political godson and incumbent governor , Mukhtar Ramalan Yero
faces a Herculean electoral contest against the candidate of the APC ,
Mallam Nasir el-Rufai , the former Minister of FCT .
For APC to have garnered 1, 127, 760 votes at the presidential poll against
PDP ’ s 484 , 085, Sambo does not need a soothsayer to tell him that his
party’ s prospects for this weekend are bleak.
Although APC is working against complacency, other strong things in its
favour are the Buhari factor; the poor performance of Yero and the desire for
change ; the choice of Barnabas Bala Bantex , who is loved in Southern
Kaduna , as deputy governorship candidate; and the defection of many
stalwarts of PDP to APC .
Verdict: APC to win .
ZAMFARA
This is an APC stronghold . In the presidential election, the party floored PDP
with 612, 202 to 144 , 833 votes. Nothing substantial may change during the
governorship poll because the masses are still behind ex -Governor Sani
Yerima and his political godson , Abdulaziz Yari . Since 1999 , PDP has not
won the governorship election in Zamfara State. There are 19 other
candidates trying their luck against Yari – among them ex -Governor Mahmud
Aliyu Shinkafi of PDP .
Verdict: APC victory .
JIGAWA
During his visit to the Presidential Villa on Friday, Governor Sule
Lamido was quick to acknowledge that the PDP was rejected at the polls
last Saturday by Nigerians . He was also forthright in setting the template for
the governorship election when he said : “ There is a tendency for bandwagon
effect but it is up to us to work very hard. ”
The battle in Jigawa is between the APC candidate, Mohammed Badaru
Abubakar and PDP ’s Mallam Aminu Ibrahim Ringim.
Others are Sardauna Yaro ( APGA ) and Murtala Musa Galamawa ( NCP) . The
race is a litmus test for the political survival of Lamido who has developed
Jigawa in an unprecedented manner in the last eight years .
As a grassroots mobiliser , Lamido might not go down without a good fight .
But the Buhari factor might just prove too much for him .
Verdict: APC to win
SOKOTO
The governorship contest is also a family affair in Sokoto where the leading
candidate, Speaker Aminu Waziri Tambuwal ( APC ) is pitched against his
political mentor, Sen . Abdalla Wali of the PDP . When Wali was elected a
Senator in 1999 , it was his lot to search for a competent legislative aide and
he found one in the young Tambuwal . The rest is now history . Having been
inspired by his time working in the Senate , he took a plunge into politics and
rose to the peak as the Speaker of the House of Representatives .
The APC , ably coordinated by Governor Aliyu Wammako, remains the party to
beat in Sokoto. The party ’ s vote haul of 671 , 926 at the poll on March 28
was a signal that the PDP might not go far at the governorship level . Its
lingering internal squabbles occasioned by the shortchanging of Deputy
Governor Mukhtar Shagari may make the defeat of the outgoing ruling party
a fait accompli .
Verdict: APC to win comfortably
NORTH CENTRAL
With the exception of Kwara and Nasarawa , PDP controls the state governments
in the zones four other states – Niger, Benue , Plateau and Kogi. What used to
be a PDP stronghold has been devastated by Hurricane Buhari. However , the
results this weekend may still be determined by a complex mix of ethnic and
religious politics that is never far from the surface in this zone .
BENUE
Watching Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State on the television on last
Friday revealed the amount of pressure he ’ s been under since he was
humbled by Senator Barnabas Gemade at last Saturday’ s senatorial contest.
With the PDP losing two out of the three senatorial seats in the state, the
governorship election could be slipping from its grasp . At the time of writing
this report, the momentum was clearly on the side of APC with several PDP
heavyweights billed to defect to APC in the days before the governorship
election. The loss of these big names could prove psychologically
devastating for the demoralized PDP .
The top candidates are ex -Minister Samuel Ortom ( APC ) backed by Sen .
George Akume, former PDP national chairman , Sen . Barnabas Gemade; ex -
Minister Audu Ogbeh among others . Suswam ’ s anointed candidate is Prince
Terhemen Tarzor .
Verdict: APC to win .
PLATEAU
For the first time since 1999 , the fortunes of PDP in Plateau State dipped
last Saturday pointing to the significance of the crack in its fold . At the
presidential ballot , the party secured 549 , 615 votes to defeat APC which
garnered 429 , 140 votes . The demand for power shift and other issues like
the imposition of PDP candidate , Sen . Gyang Pwajok might make the
governorship poll tougher . The people of Southern and Central Plateau have
rejected the imposition Pwajok from Plateau North on them after the eight -
year tenure of Governor David Jang.
Out of the 17 local governments in the state, Plateau North has six , South
( six) and Central is left with five. Motivated by the urge for power shift, the
people of Southern and Central Plateau have opted for APC leaving only
Plateau North in PDP . The APC governorship candidate, Hon . Simon Lalong
is from Southern Plateau and his deputy is the immediate past
Vice Chancellor of the University of Jos, Prof. Sonny Tyodem from Plateau
Central. On its part , the PDP picked its candidate from Plateau North and
deputy , U . G . Gomwalk from Kanke in Plateau Central .
The outgoing Governor Jang is locked in the fight of his life because Pwajok
loss will overshadow his political legacy. He is likely to take advantage of
the high population strength of Plateau North , the church and Berom ethnic
nationality to upstage the APC candidate.
Verdict: PDP to win
KWARA
There are 16 governorship candidates in Kwara. The crowd notwithstanding,
the real contest is between incumbent Governor Abdulfatai Ahmed ( APC )
and Sen . Simeon Sule Ajibola of PDP .
A coronation is likely in the state going by the mood of voters at last
Saturday’ s presidential election where they voted massively for APC with
302, 146 votes compared to PDP ’ s 32, 602 .
The problems with PDP in the state are wrong choice of candidate ;
restriction of the political influence of its candidate, Ajibola to only Kwara
South Senatorial District; the recourse to religious and ethnic politics by
Ajibola ; abandonment by other PDP governorship aspirants except Prof
Shuaib Oba Abdulraheem ( the DG of Ajibola Campaign Organization ) as well
as the sudden loss of support from the centre and PDP financier in the
state, Hajiya Bola Shagaya .
On its part, APC has gained more supporters with its ability to keep the state
united; the strong platform of the late Wazirin of Ilorin ,
Dr . Abubakar Olusola Saraki; the political support from Sen . Gbemisola
Saraki; the religious factor; and the bandwagon effect of Buhari ’s victory .
Verdict: The state is 70-30 in favour of APC .
KOGI
There is no governorship poll in Kogi State but the struggle for control of the
State House of Assembly will be between APC , PDP and Accord Party. Last
Saturday, APC won all the three Senatorial seats in the state across 21 local
government areas . While Accord is stronger in Yagba West , APC and PDP will
slug it out in 20 others.
Verdict: APC to win majority in the assembly
NASARAWA
The results of the presidential election in Nasarawa State have shown that
the governorship poll is an even fight between the APC candidate , Governor
Umar Tanko Al -Makura and PDP ’ s Yusuf Mohammed Igabi . Last Saturday,
PDP garnered 273, 460 while APC secured 236, 838 votes . But a huge number
of votes that could have gone either way were voided.
The indices which will shape the race are ethnicity ; religion ; godfathers ;
coalition of forces and performance in office .
The other candidates in the governorship race are Hajiya A .
Mbaka ( LP); Labaran Maku ( APGA ); Tanko Malami ( PPA ); Zakka Zaggi Rabo
( ADC ); Stanley John Mamud ( Accord) and Haruna Shuaibu Iliyasu ( ID) .
Findings reveal that if there is an alliance between Maku , who is
from the influential Eggon ethnic group and another candidate , the governor
may walk on tight rope. The selling points of Al -Makura are his humility ,
sterling performance in office , ability to resolve the incessant crises between
the natives and Fulani herdsmen ; and earning the confidence of the peasant.
Verdict: Battleground
NIGER
The humiliating defeat of Governor Babangida Aliyu in last Saturday’ s Niger
East Senatorial District election foretold what may happen in the
governorship election in the state. Apart from Babangida , most PDP leaders
are yet to recover from what one of them described as the “ Buhari
Tsunami . ”
The battle in Niger State is purely that of former Army
Generals and officers whose children are contesting . The APC candidate,
Abubakar Sani Bello is the son of a former Army chief and a key stakeholder
in MTN, Col . Sani Bello ( retd ) . The PDP candidate, Umar Mohammed Nasko
is a scion of Gen . Gado Nasko’ s family . Investigation also confirmed that the
APC candidate is married to the daughter of a former Head of State, Gen .
Abdulsalami Abubakar .
At last Saturday’ s election APC received 657 , 678 votes to PDP ’ s 149, 222.
The gap may prove too big to bridge before this weekend’ s contest .
Verdict: APC to win
NORTH -EAST
The critical factor in the North- East is the insurgency and how the Jonathan
administration has handled it. That clearly weighed heavily in the minds of
voters as they punished the president and his party at the polls last weekend.
That pattern is expected to be repeated this Saturday . However , ethnic and
religious factors could also affect outcomes in Adamawa and Taraba.
BAUCHI
The earning of a paltry 86, 085 votes by the PDP in Bauchi State during the
presidential election compared to APC ’ s 931, 598 votes has left other parties
with a little hope in the governorship poll. Unless a miracle happens , the
battle is over because the bandwagon effect of the poll success of the
President- elect would be to the advantage of the APC governorship
candidate, Muhammed Abdullahi Abubakar . If it is true that Governor Isa
Yuguda installed both the APC and PDP
candidates, it must be a deft political move which may see him winning
wherever the pendulum swings.
The other nine candidates include Danladi Musa ( MPPP); Mukhtar
Haladu ( AD ); Bello Ibrahim ( APGA ); Salisu Musa ( UPN); Mato Musa ( UPP );
Bala Musa ( PDC ); Abdullahi Adamu Usman ( KOWA ); Jatau Mohammad Auwal
( PDP ); and Musa Yakubu Wanka ( ACPN ) .
Verdict: APC to win comfortably
GOMBE
Despite placing Sen . Danjuma Goje under house arrest , APC still won the
presidential election with 361 , 245 to PDP ’ s 96, 873 votes . The tension in
the state accounted for the low turnout of voters. Governor Ibrahim
Dankwambo of PDP is in dire straits because of the formidable forces
arrayed against him.
He has an acceptable opponent in Mohammed Inuwa Yahaya of the APC , but
the decisive factor would be the Buhari phenomenon . The rest of the field
are Hassan Kidda ( LP); Muhammed Ibrahim ( AD ); Ahmed Modibo Wali
( APGA ); Abdulhamid Sadiq ( UDP ); Yusuf Haruna ( NNPP); Jafar Abubakar
( ADC ); Umar Ardo ( PDC ); Abubakar Hashidu ( Accord); Gidado Hashidu
( ACPN ) and Muhammad Yelwa Daudu ( SDP) .
Verdict: APC victory .
TARABA
Although ex -Minister of Niger Delta Affairs , Darius Dickson Ishaku of the PDP
is the leading candidate , Sen . Aisha Jummai Alhassan is closing in on him .
The outcome of the presidential election in Taraba State suggests a tight
governorship poll on Saturday because while PDP scored
310, 800 votes, APC was able to get 261 , 326 . This trend left a
difference of 49, 474 votes between the parties. With more hard
work, the table could turn against PDP at the governorship level unless the
ruling party in the state is more circumspect in tackling the Buhari
bandwagon effect . The factors that may ultimately determine the winner
include ethnicity, religion , and the disposition of former Minister of Defence,
Gen . Theophilus Danjuma . The PDP candidate is Danjuma ’ s boy and that
guarantees him the edge as far as funding is concerned .
Others seeking the office are Kabiru Umar ( PDM); Hamman
Mohammed ( PPN); Razak Umar ( LP); Gambo Usman ( UDP ); Bello
Mohammed ( PPA ); Charles Buri ( AA ); Umar Arabi ( DPP ); Kabiru Bala
( ACPN ); and David Sabo Kente ( SDP) .
Verdict: PDP to win
BORNO
The declaration of Gambo Lawan as the PDP governorship candidate in
Borno State by the Federal High Court, Abuja has thrown the party into
disarray. The decision saw a former Governor of Borno State, Sen . Modu Ali
Sheriff losing out in his bid to install his godson as governor of the state.
The development has forced many PDP members to stand aloof and watch
how Lawan will weather the storm .
Thus , Lawan is going into the governorship election as a political
orphan. With APC ’ s huge votes of 473, 543 in Borno State during the
presidential election and PDP ’ s paltry 25 ,640 votes , the outcome of the
governorship poll is predictable .
Verdict: APC victory
YOBE
The APC is already in celebratory mood here following its overwhelming
victory at the presidential election where it earned
446, 265 votes and left PDP with 25, 526 . Governor Ibrahim Gaidam ( APC ) is
leading other contestants like ex -Minister Adamu Maina Waziri ( who is
becoming a veteran governorship candidate ); Buka Abba Isa ( AD );
Muhammad Musa Lawal ( APGA ); Alli Gunsama Jallaba ( NCP) . The fact that
the APC family had been united is strength for the party. On the other hand ,
the PDP has been battling divisions within its ranks since it concluded its
governorship primaries .
Verdict: APC to win
ADAMAWA
It is a tough fight among four strong candidates in the state. They
are the APC ’ s Senator Jibrilla Bindow ; the SDP candidate , Marcus Gundiri,
who narrowly lost to ex - Governor Murtala Nyako in 2011 ; the PDP
candidate, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu ( a former chairman of the Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission ( EFCC ) and the candidate of the PDM , Dr .
Ahmed Mohammed Modibbo .
With the backing of the Christian community, especially in Adamawa North ,
Gundiri is set to give APC candidate, Bindow a good fight. The APC ’ s
leadership at the national level needs to intervene by prevailing on ex -Vice
President Atiku Abubakar to forgive Bindow the political sins he had allegedly
committed or else Gundiri might have a slim win .
Already , there is pressure on the PDM candidate, Modibbo to step down for
Gundiri in what appears to be a last minute accord. Although APC secured
374, 701 votes during the presidential election against PDP ’ s 251 , 664 ,
Ribadu is facing opposition from within his party . Some influential leaders of
the party are behind the campaign for a protest vote against Ribadu.
Verdict: Adamawa is too close to call.
SOUTH SOUTH
As projected by this newspaper , President Jonathan won last weekend ’ s polls
comfortably in the South South zone. He is not on the ballot as the states
choose their governors this Saturday . His loss could dampen the enthusiasm of
his party men . The prospect of life in opposition could also affect the way some
states vote . But in the final analysis local issues of power shift and balancing
could prove decisive.
CROSS RIVER
Going by the results posted by the PDP in the presidential race, its
governorship candidate , Senator Ben Ayade, should be awaiting mere
coronation next Saturday.
Voters massively chose PDP above other parties at the presidential election.
It scored 414 , 863 to APC ’ s 28, 368 . Such a wide margin makes any upset
unlikely for the APC or any other party. The incumbency factor is also in
favour in Ayade. His party has always won the state and has seemingly
impenetrable structure in all the nooks and crannies .
But politics is never as simple as ABC . Things are not always what they
look . A seemingly innocuous incident can upturn things in politics , turning a
dominant party into an opposition in no time. While Ayade remains the clear
favourite to grab the votes owing by the victory of his party in all local
governments of the state at the presidential poll, the emergence of Gen
Muhammadu Buhari as President- elect could sway votes in the direction of
the APC .
Its governorship candidate , Odey Ochicha , is no means a push -over . The
staff of National Petroleum Investment Management Services ( NPIMS) has
deep pockets and wide network. He is considered approachable and
accessible but critics say he lacks political experience and has never won
any election.
There is talk that voters could look his way so as not to be in the opposition
with APC in power at federal level but that remains to be seen. Except that
and the unthinkable happens , Ayade might be on his way to winning the
election.
Verdict: PDP to win
AKWA IBOM
As far as many members of the APC in Akwa -Ibom are concerned , the
953, 304 votes scored by President Jonathan in the state were just
concocted . They claimed there were no elections in Akwa- Ibom . Some who
accepted elections held alleged the exercise was marred by irregularities and
manipulations.
The 58 , 411 votes for Buhari , they said , were just allocated to the president -
elect . Realistically speaking, no one expected Buhari to win Akwa -Ibom going
by the traditional voting pattern and mood of the state . But the massive
margin enjoyed by Jonathan convinced people there was more to the poll
than meets the eyes .
Come April 11, APC ’s governorship candidate , Umana Umana , will be out to
prove the large margin in Akwa Ibom by PDP was a fluke . He is from Uyo
district with the largest voting population in the state. As former Secretary to
the State Government ( SSG) , he has a wide network that could be handy .
His candidature is boosted by the support of former Governor Victor Attah
and former Petroleum Minister, Don Etiebet, to the APC . The duo has scores
to settle with Governor Akpabio and prove their relevance in local politics.
With them , Umana is a stronger candidate.
But he is up against formidable forces in the PDP led by Akpabio who is bent
on installing Udom Emmanuel as his successor. Akpabio is a major financer
of national PDP so shouldn’ t have challenges spending to enable his
anointed candidate win .
Verdict: Battleground
RIVERS
The April 11 governorship election promises to be an epic battle between the
two major opponents , Dakuku Peterside of APC and PDP ’ s Nyesom Wike.
The election, from all indications , would be a battle of egos , money , the
political future of the dramatis personae and much more.
For the state governor , Rotimi Amaechi , who is rounding up his second term
in office , this is one election that would define his place in the political
history of the South -South state .
And for his opponents, this is one ‘ battle ’ that nothing would be spared to
reclaim the state from a man who , in the last two years , has proved a real
handful.
Riding high on the back of his endorsement by the First Lady, Patience
Jonathan , the PDP candidate is telling everyone that he is a man to watch
out for.
But of great concern to PDP leaders in the state is the opposition to Wike ’s
candidacy by influential opinion leaders in the state including former
minister, Chief Alabo Graham Douglas and Ijaw activist , Annkio Briggs to
mention just a few .
Their grouse is not unconnected with the failure of the PDP to respect the
unwritten zoning agreement dating back to 1998 regarding the governorship
seat . It provides for rotation between the Upland and the Riverine areas of
the state.
Wike hails from Ikwerre in the upland , the same ethnic nationality as the
incumbent governor , whose predecessor , Dr . Peter Odili, who governed from
1999 to 2007 was also from the upland .
The agitation for power shift favour Peterside. From the Opobo kingdom, the
youthful politician was elected to represent Andoni/Opobo - Nkoro area in the
House of Representatives in 2011 .
Peterside’ s emergence , sources say , was a deft move by his political mentor,
Governor Amaechi to rally the support of the Riverine people behind the APC
in the battle for the political soul of the state.
With the Riverine people expected to queue behind Peterside in the election,
political observers are of the opinion that the support by the Ikwerre and
Ogoni nationalities for or against the two major candidates would go a long
way to determine who wins the election.
A few posers would suffice here: can Amaechi convince his kinsmen to
reject another Ikwerre ( Wike ) in favour of Peterside? Would aggrieved PDP
governorship aspirants and key stakeholders like Graham Douglas, Dokubo,
Briggs and others work against Wike who is the anointed candidate of the
Presidency ?
In the Ogoni axis , Peterside, sources say , is head and shoulders above Wike
in the battle for votes . His high rating is not unconnected to the influence of
the Senator representing Rivers East, Magnus Abe , who though lost his return
bid on March 28 , remains a loyal member of the APC .
With the victory of President Goodluck Jonathan in Rivers State still a
subject of controversy , the Rivers APC is reportedly girding his loins in order
to prevent a reoccurrence in the governorship election.
Against this backdrop, the party is not leaving anything to chance in its
preparations for the coming polls . The victory of the APC in the presidential
election, sources say , has galvanised members of the party to deliver the
governorship seat for the party come April 11.
This is however not the case in the PDP camp . The defeat of President
Goodluck Jonathan in the March 28 polls , sources say has greatly dampened
the initial enthusiasm in the party .
In the last one week , a palpable gloom has gripped the rank and file of the
party who fear that the people of the state will likely pitch their tent with
APC in the governorship election in line with the political history of the state
which usually prefers to be in the country ’ s political mainstream.
The pattern of voting in the governorship election, sources posit , would
significantly reflect in the state House of Assembly which would hold on the
same day.
Verdict: APC to win
DELTA
Still riding high on the crest of its victory in the presidential election, the
Delta State chapter of the PDP is confident of recording a similar feat in the
governorship election.
Its candidate , Senator Ifeanyi Okowa , who started his political career as a
councilor, appears to be the odds on favourite in the election in which his
major opponent , Olorogun O ’ tega Emerhor , cannot be considered as a push-
over .
A few major factors are working in Okowa ’ s favour . First, is his deep
understanding of the political environment owing to his almost two decades
in politics .
A former councilor, ex -local government chairman , former commissioner and
ex - Secretary to the State Government ( SSG) and currently a senator , Okowa
also enjoy the support of many political stakeholders in the state on account
of the zoning formula , which favours the Delta North where he hails from .
The intimidating structures of the PDP due to its 16 years of dominating the
political landscape of the state since 1999 would also come in handy for
Okowa , who currently chairs the Senate Committee on Health and is credited
with the passage of the National Health Act , which was his initiative .
For the APC candidate, Olorogun Emerhor, an Urhobo, an ethnic group which
unarguably controls the largest population in Delta Central, all hope is not
lost despite the poor showing of his party in the presidential election.
The businessman turned politician , sources disclosed , is banking on the huge
population of the Urhobos in the state to clinch the governorship seat .
But his aspiration is not helped by his party’ s lack of structures in the state
coupled with his political inexperience. Though many Deltans believe that the
APC candidate has all it takes to take the state to the next level if elected
as governor , the division within the leadership of his ethnic group, many of
whom are allegedly pro - PDP may work against him at the polls .
Despite the heavy odds stacked against the APC candidate , many party
members remain upbeat on Emerhor ’ s chances. Their optimism, it was learnt ,
stems from the party’ s victory in the presidential polls and the likely
bandwagon effect this would have on the governorship elections .
Another governorship candidate many people seem not to be looking in his
direction as capable of making any impact in the polls is Chief Great Ogboru
of the Labour Party.
An Urhobo, Ogboru gave the incumbent governor a run for his money in the
2007 and 2011 governorship elections , and this fact that is not lost on
political watchers of the state who argue that the LP candidate has the lion
heart and popularity to pull an upset in the governorship polls .
However , the heavy depletion of Ogboru’ s resources which he expended on
the prosecution of his 2003 and 2007 governorship campaign may hamper on
his chances of realising his age -long ambition come April 11 .
In the event that Okowa and Emerhor wins the majority votes in their
respective senatorial zones , the battleground would be in the South
senatorial zone where the incumbent governor , Dr . Emmanuel Uduaghan , an
Itsekiri comes from .
Sources say when the chips are down, the PDP candidate would win this
zone barring any last minute upset . In the Ijaw speaking area of the zone,
Okowa appears the candidate to beat, as influential opinion leaders in the
area including Ijaw leader, Chief Edwin Clark and ex -militant , Government
Ekpemupolo popularly called Tompolo, are backing him to the hilt.
In the worst case scenario , the Itsekiri votes would likely be split among the
two major candidates thus putting Emerhor at a disadvantage.
And for the House of Assembly election, the PDP may win majority of the
seats leaving a handful of others for the APC and LP.
Verdict: PDP to win
SOUTHWEST
With the presidential election settled , the gubernatorial contests in three South
West states would be determined by totally local issues and personalities .
However the Buhari factor could come into play as the people of the region as
excited at the prospect of being in the same boat as the party that controls the
center. This could have a bearing on Saturday’ s polls . Governorship elections
would hold in only Lagos , Ogun and Oyo States . In Ondo, Ekiti and Osun only
state assembly polls will hold.
LAGOS
Although President Jonathan , ahead of the March 28 presidential elections ,
made tremendous efforts at swaying the electorate in Lagos in favour of his
party, the PDP , it is doubtful if his political maneuvers now guarantee a
victorious outing for Jimi Agbaje , the PDP gubernatorial candidate.
Not even the recent attempt by the PDP in the state to discredit APC ’ s
national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu , appeared to have succeeded as
the electorate in their majority gave the state to Gen . Buhari and his party
during the last electon.
Although the PDP pulled some surprise victories in some erstwhile APC
strongholds like Oshodi -Isolo, Ajeromi Ifelodun , Amuwo- Odofin and Surulere,
pundits say the ruling party will still outshine PDP at the polls during next
weekend’ s state elections . It is also believed that the bloc votes by non -
natives that gave Jonathan a good performance last weekend may not be
there for Agbaje and other PDP candidate next week , thus exposing the party
to massive defeat .
“ We all understand the role played by the vote of the non -natives in the
victories of the PDP in those areas . We all know why they voted PDP in that
election. Now that Jonathan is not contesting next Saturday, these people
will vote their conscience freely without any ethnic or religious bias ,” Jimi
Benson, the House of Representatives member - elect for Ikorodu federal
constituency , said .
While some talk about a keenly contested two -horse race between the APC
and the PDP , for who will become the next governor of the state, others
insist Agbaje ’s candidature will not add any value to the party ’ s chances as
it will still be defeated.
Those optimistic about Agbaje’ s performance in the polls are citing the fact
that the structure on which he contested the 2007 election has now been
collapsed into the PDP . With this , they feel the party is further strengthened
to tackle the APC in next month’ s election.
But there are those who feel that with PDP as his party of choice, Agbaje
should not bank on the support he enjoyed in 2007. “ While Agbaje may be
well loved by Lagosians in a way , his candidature is not enough to change
how the people of Lagos feel about the PDP .
Also , months after his controversial victory at the primary election, Agbaje is
still battling some serious issues within his party. And with these critical
issues still unresolved , pundits say his aspiration to rule Lagos may remain
mere wishful thinking .
Issues like the need to reconcile the several factions of the party and how
the party will coordinate the governorship campaign slowed down the
progress of the party towards preparing adequately for the all -important
February election.
“ We prepared seriously. But up till this moment , some leaders are not ready
to work with others to ensure Agbaje ’s victory . Even after all the aspirants
pledge their supports to him , some leaders remained aggrieved even after
the candidate himself met some of them and pleaded for their
understanding. Majority of them claimed they are not angry with him but
with the leaders who imposed him on the party.
There was also the problem of how to run the campaign. This was a serious
problem. Some people wanted the structure established before the primary
election to promote Agbaje retained . But several others made frantic calls
for harmonisation to accommodate all interests in the party .
Feelers, however , indicated that the Bode George/Ogunlewe faction of the
party remained unwilling to accommodate other interests and as such , shut
many chieftains out . A member of the state executive committee , who
preferred anonymity , while speaking to The Nation, said the party realized
the danger of the situation.
APC ’ s control of political structures in the state is massive – from state to
local council levels . This gives it an unparalleled ability to turn out the votes
on polling day. Pundits say the party is already making good use of this
advantage to correct some political mistakes in areas it lost last weekend.
By the time all of the above are placed side by side with the unending crises
that have rocked the PDP in the state for years, Akinwunmi Ambode , the
APC governorship candidate , may most likely emerge as the victor in next
Saturday’ s political contest.
But unlike in 2011 , when it was a clean sweep for the ruling party, the PDP
is expected to win a handful of assembly seats , especially in zreas like
Amuwo Odofin , Oshodi- Isolo and Ajeromi Ifelodun where its candidates won
some national assembly seats last week .
In 2011 , Babatunde Fashola of the then Action Congress of Nigeria ( ACN) ,
now APC , won re -election as governor of the Centre of Excellence by a total
of 1 ,509 , 113 votes to beat Ade Dosunmu of the PDP to a distant second with
300, 450 votes . The ACN also won all the 40 House of Assembly seats in the
state back then.
Verdict: APC to win .
OGUN
Before the March 28 presidential election, an array of PDP chieftains ,
including Buruji Kashamu , former party boss , Joju Fadairo , Adewale Osinubi,
Doyin Okupe , amongst others , was working round the clock to deliver votes in
the state to the PDP . They were determined to beat APC to second place.
They campaigned against the wide acceptance of Governor Ibikunle Amosun .
It was a huge task for Jonathan ’ s men and at the end of last Saturday’ s
presidential polls , they learnt their lessons . PDP lost the presidency and
could only win a senate seat and two House seats.
Consequently , observers say the support base of the party in Ogun State is
daily being depleted ahead of the governorship election, giving an impression
that Gboyega Isiaka , the PDP governorship candidate may soon be alone and
fighting a lost battle.
While rumours are rife that Buruji is already negotiating with the leadership
of the APC for a soft landing following Jonathan ’s loss of the presidency ,
Okupe and Fadairo are said to be less interested in what become of
Gboyega ’ s aspiration as their interest in the entire process had all along
been hinged on the presidency .
More shockingly , Osinubi, who is the candidate of the PDP for the House of
Representatives for Ijebu Central Federal Constituency, on Thursday defected
to the ruling APC , and vowed to support Governor Ibikunle Amosun’ s re -
election.
This is just as the PDP is worrying its head over the seeming ‘siddon look ’
attitude of people like former Governor Gbenga Daniel, former Speaker Dimeji
Bankole, Jubril Martins Kuye and a host of other aggrieved PDP leaders
amidst fears that they may work against its victory on Saturday.
Analysts are also of the opinion that winning the 2015 governorship election
in the state for PDP may be a tall order . This is because, to majority of the
people of the state across political party lines Amosun has performed well in
his first term .
Verdict: APC to win .
OYO
In Oyo state , the failure of Jonathan ’ s party to make any appreciable impact
at the March 28 election confirmed earlier permutations that Governor Abiola
Ajimobi may be looking good for another term in the Government House . With
the poor performance of the PDP and Rasheed Ladoja ’ s Accord Party, the
Adebayo Alao-Akala - led Labour Party ( LP) , is left to challenge the All
Progressives Congress ( APC ) in Saturday’ s election.
While the APC clinched all senate seats and majority House of
Representatives slots , the LP won two House of Representatives seats . This
signals the decline of both the PDP and the Accord Party in the politics of
the state. The development also reinforced the readiness of the APC to
continue in office beyond 2015 .
Incumbent governor , Senator Ajimobi, who is seeking for a second term in
office , is up against old familiar foes in the battle for the political soul of the
pace setter state.
Lined up against him are his predecessor , Adebayo Alao-Akala of the Labour
Party ( LP); another former governor , Rashidi Ladoja representing Accord
Party ( AP ); former Senate Leader , Teslim Folarin, the candidate of the
Peoples Democratic Party ( PDP ) a youthful politician and wealthy
businessman, Seyi Makinde , the flag bearer of the relatively new Social
Democratic Party ( SDP) .
Although the likes of Jumoke Akinjide , Jonathan ’ s minister from the state,
and Senator Teslim Folarin, gubernatorial candidate, are still of the opinion
that the people will vote for their party , indications that this may not be so
are numerous. The daily defection of party leaders from the PDP , which
started with the exit of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala and continued
after Jonathan ’ s loss, remains an issue .
With APC determined to hold on to the state, enjoying the support of all the
first class monarchs including Alaafin of Oyo , Soun of Ogbomosho, Olubadan
of Ibadan etc , as well as its recent victories across the state in the national
assembly elections , Ajimobi may have little or no problem pushing over Akala
on his way back to the Government House .
Interestingly, the four leading candidates – Ajimobi , Ladoja , Folarin and
Makinde are from Ibadan , the state capital . While Ajimobi hails from Ibadan
South , Ladoja comes from Ibadan North , with Folarin and Makinde both from
Ona Ara . Akala is an indigene of Ogbomoso.
Against this backdrop, earlier permutations were that the votes from Ibadan
would be shared among Ajimobi, Ladoja , Folarin and Makinde , with none of
the contenders having a clear cut advantage . Not a few are also ruling Akala
out in the scramble for Ibadan votes . The former governor was optimistic of
posting a good showing , banking on the fact that his running mate, Sharafa
Alli , a former Secretary to the State Government ( SSG) , hails from Ibadan .
But the massive support given to the APC last weekend by the people of
Ibadan , with the party clinching all available positions , has may rubbished
such calculations . If last election results are anything to go by , Ajimobi will
mop up the votes in his native Ibadan and enjoy support from all other parts
of the state .
Verdict: APC wins.
SOUTH EAST
In spite of historical patterns the results of the March 28 presidential and
National Assembly elections in the South - East were controversial and intriguing.
While informed observers had correctly predicted President Jonathan’ s victory in
the zone , only very few, if any , imagined the possibility of the ruling party also
claiming all the National Assembly seats from the zone .
This situation, coupled with the victory of APC’ s Buhari, at the presidential poll,
has raised the stakes in this weekend ’s governorship and state house of
assembly elections in the zone. Before the current realities , PDP supporters in
the South - East used to joke that once you secure the party’ s ticket at the
primaries; you were already on the way to the office you were contesting for.
The permutations may have changed largely following the victory of Buhari’ s
APC at the federal level and the usual craze in the zone to be part of
mainstream politics .
ABIA
In Abia State where Governor Theodore Orji effectively controls the PDP
party machinery, the party is very hopeful of another landslide both in the
governorship and State House of Assembly elections .
Describing Orji ’ s control of the party machinery in an interview with The
Nation, Chief Udensi Ukoma , a community leader in Abia North , said , ” Over
the years, PDP has managed to dictate the pace in Abia State politics
because of Governor Orji ’ s style of governance. Until recently , he succeeded
in rendering opposition parties redundant in Abia. ”
That state of inertia however changed tremendously during the preparations
for this year ’ s governorship primaries as most of the opposition political
parties fielded what a political commentator in Umuahia described as
“ equally strong governorship candidates , whose dynamism brought life to the
opposition parties once despised in Umuahia Government House.
For example, the emergence of Dr . Alex Otti, the immediate past Managing
Director of Diamond Bank , as the governorship candidate of All Progressives
Congress ( APGA ) rejuvenated the party in the state , making it one of the
major contenders .
For the All Progressives Congress ( APC ) candidate, Dr . Nyerere Anyim, who
is from Agburuike Isiugwu in Obingwa LGA , the result of the March 28
presidential election, in which APC candidate emerged the President- elect , is
a great boost to his quest to occupy the coveted seat at Umuahia
Government House. Many believe that this turn of events in the country ’s
federal political equation will help to make APC in the state a major
contender.
Another factor that threw up the three parties and their candidates as the
leading contenders is the zoning factor . They all come from the zone widely
favoured to produce the next governor of the state. While his critics tried
hard to dismiss Otti ’s Ngwa heritage , it seems difficult to say he has no
connections with the Ngwa race.
So , these current realities have thrown up the three political parties; the
ruling PDP , which has Dr . Okezie Ikpeazu as its governorship candidate,
APGA and APC as the major contenders in next week ’ s governorship
election.
While Ikpeazu’ s PDP , boasting of the incumbency factor in the state and the
fact that the party cleared the presidential and National Assembly elections
in the state, is confident to emerge the winner , Nyerere and Otti’ s supporters
believe the emergence of Buhari , as the president - elect , has neutralized the
political temperature in the state, creating a more level playing field . As a
result, the two candidates are equally hopeful.
Verdict: PDP to win
EBONYI
Although Ebonyi is a traditional PDP state , we predicted that it would be a
battleground in this year ’ s presidential election mainly because of the ripple
effects of the crisis in PDP , which culminated in the political coup that
dislodged control of the party from Governor Martin Elechi .
As it stands , supporters of the embattled governor , who moved over to
Labour Party from where they have arguably taken the shine off the PDP at
governorship campaigns , are major contenders to the Ebonyi governorship
race. The party ’s governorship candidate , Chief Edward Nkwegu, enjoys
Elechi ’ s support and this is widely believed to be a major advantage. He
equally enjoys the support of former Minister of Health, Prof. Onyebuchi
Chukwu , who lost the PDP ticket to the Deputy Governor , Engr. Dave Umahi ,
in very controversial circumstances .
Umahi, who is the governorship candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic
Party ( PDP ) has, since his dramatic emergence , fought a brave battle with
supporters of Elechi . While his supporters say he has fought bravely enough
to be reckoned as a major contender, many believe he and his party, the
PDP , will be major casualties of the result of the presidential election and
the emergence of All Progressives Congress ( APC )’s Muhammadu Buhari as
the president- elect . This is because , Umahi ’ s strength had been traced to his
long connection to Abuja and Aso - Rock , but with the imminent change of
baton, it is doubtful if Umahi and the state PDP will still get the kind of
backing many anticipated they will get in order to win the state governorship
race. Some say even if his patrons like Senator Anyim Pius Anyim and
President Goodluck Jonathan who had enthroned federal lawmakers in the
state still threw their weights behind him, common voters may want to take
into cognizance the reality that APC will now be in charge at the centre .
Already , there are stories that the supporters of Elechi in Labour may find an
alliance with APC very attractive . If this happens , they may easily win the
governorship election, if not , it will be a three horse race.
All these will however depend on how APC succeeds in handling the crisis
that trailed its governorship candidate struggle . It would be recalled that in
late February, some aggrieved stakeholders of APC in Ebonyi State
threatened to leave the party if Senator Julius Ucha remains the party’ s
governorship flag - bearer . They reportedly said if they still remained in the
party, they would work against Ucha as APC ’ s candidate.
Verdict: Too close to call
ENUGU
Since the dramatic reconciliation of the Deputy Senate President , Ike
Ekweremadu -led faction of PDP in Enugu State and that of Governor Sullivan
Chime, described by PDP as the major political move that will preserve the
ruling Peoples Democratic Party in the state, the party ’s governorship
candidate, Hon. Ifeanyi -Ugwuanyi , has remained the top contender in this
Saturday’ s gubernatorial election.
But the dynamic campaign of Okey Ezea -led APC in the state , is now posing
a more lethal threat to Ugwuanyi ’ s predicted victory because of the
emergence of APC ’ s General Muhammadu Buhari as the President -Elect .
Already , The Nation gathered that many grassroots political leaders in the
state, who never gave a second thought to APC are now willing to work for
the party. This will serve as a major boost for the party. Dr . Kingsley Udeh in
Enugu said “ even if APC failed to win the governorship race in the state , it
will get some state House of Assembly seats and that will be a good
beginning . ”
Again, although the Chime/Ekweremadu rift has been resolved , insiders say
many people were hurt in the process and such people may work against
PDP .
Also , with Enugu State’ s Catholic dominated population, there is the fear at
the PDP camp that Father Mbaka ’ s well publicized sermon may still sway
some precious votes to APC . This notwithstanding, Ugwuanyi , who enjoys
Governor Sullivan Chime ’ s full support , according to most people who spoke
to The Nation yesterday, remains the foremost contender in the race.
Verdict: PDP to win
IMO
The presidential and National Assembly election results notwithstanding, Imo
State is an All Progressives Congress state , with Governor Rochas Okorocha
flying the flag of his party for the governorship race.
Before the dramatic emergence of Okorocha, first on the ticket of All
Progressive Grand Alliance ( APGA ) before the formation of APC , the state
had remained a traditional PDP state.
That explained the large number of experienced politicians that are still in
the state chapter of PDP and the stiff political challenge Okorocha’ s APC
still faces in the state. The way Okorocha and others criticized the results of
the Presidential and National Assembly election, gives clear impression of
the stiff competition in the state. In the said result announced by the
Independent National Electoral Commission ( INEC ) , PDP besides winning the
presidential race, cleared the National Assembly seats .
But with the emergence of APC ’ s Buhari as the President- elect , observers
say the state elections in Imo will be different . According Ikechukwu
Anyanwu , “ We know we have long association with PDP and there are many
influential politicians in the party , there is no doubt that APC , the ruling
party, will do better in next week ’s elections . ”
The governorship is a three -horse race between the ruling APC , fielding
Governor Rochas Okorocha; PDP , fielding Deputy Speaker of the House of
Representatives , Hon . Emeka Ihedioha and APGA , fielding Captain Emmanuel
Iheanacho. While the three parties enjoy sizeable followership in the state,
the incumbent governor , Owelle Rochas Okorocha is likely to win the race.
The party will also get majority in the House of Assembly but both PDP and
APGA will also get seats in the Assembly .
Verdict: APC to win